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It seems that the optimism that took hold of Serbia in December has calmed down some. The termination of the visa regime was seen as a victory, but a short-term one and it was mostly symbolically powerful since the elite (the top ten thousand citizens) already had ways and means to travel abroad while the rest (the poorer stratum of society) cannot afford that luxury even now. In the best case scenario, only the highly educated young people can have hopes of better chances of finding jobs abroad, which – again – is not the most happy of circumstances for Serbia.
Lowering of living standards is felt day in and day out and it affects citizens in a negative way. According to public opinion polls the Democratic Party is still the most popular – however, now it is popular in the northern province of Vojvodina. In the recently held local elections in the small town of Odzaci (in Vojvodina) the Democratic Party was victorious – and this is no small feat, considering that in the past twenty years Milosevic’s Socialist and Seselj’s Radicals have continuously taken landslide victories. The coalition For European Odzaci had won 34.6 percent of the votes, followed by the Serbian Progressive Party (which took part in the elections on its own) with 22 percent, and Milosevic’s Socialist Party with 9.9 percent. However, if we keep in mind that in the recent early elections in the Vozdovac municipality of Belgrade the Serbian Progressive Party overtook the Democrats, we can immediately see how the reverse rule applies. The Democratic Party had lost in a place where it previously always won. Also, if we take into consideration that, according to the polls, the Serbian Progressives have overtaken the Democrats in Belgrade as well as in southern Serbia, then the Democrats seem to have justified reasons to worry – even more so considering that this distribution of popularity is not of a recent date: it was established in 2007 during local and parliamentary elections. On this occasion the Serbian Radical Party had won, across Serbia, 1 152 854 votes, while the Democrats took 919 821 votes. The Democrats formed the government anyway because of its greater coalition making capacities, and also because they were more powerful in Vojvodina which balanced the results from the rest of Serbia. Following the elections they made a coalition with Milosevic’s Socialists and formed the government. On the other hand in Belgrade they barely managed to gather a majority – not even the Socialists’ votes helped, so they had to make arrangements with the “opposition” Liberal-Democratic Party, which strongly supports the governments’ pro-European agenda. Following this trail it is obvious that in Serbia Belgrade is the weakest link.
The Democratic Party’s constituency in Vojvodina is in slight decline. One of the reasons for this is a decline among national minority voters – just these days there was a conflict between the Democratic Party and a party representing a national minority, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians. Another reason is that the Democratic Party took part in curbing the powers given to Vojvodina by changing their official Statute (which was voted into power in Vojvodina’s Parliament), and hence earned the disapproval of many local voters. Their mistake on this occasion was that they courted the centralists, who promptly refused, while the better part of their usual voters (who are supporters of greater autonomy) were left to reconsider who they give their vote to next time.
If we listen to the opinions of some political analysts we will hear that this new distribution of power on the political scene does not affect Serbia’s intention of joining the EU - because Seselj’s party has divided and its now independent wing which has greater support of the masses, also advocates joining the EU. This means that the powers advocating against the European Union have been marginalized. In spite of this, on Serbia’s road to the European Union there are still many traps that will not be easy to avoid. Truth be told, party polarization in regards to Serbia joining the EU is less drastic than two years ago, but this has been achieved by a strong veering to the right by Djindjic’s former party. It has also taken a greater role in rightist discourse as well. On the other hand, the Serbian right considers joining the EU to be connected to certain demands.
One of the previously mentioned traps is regional cooperation. Serbian politicians do not miss an opportunity to mention that Serbia is the leader in the Balkans. This on its own could be a cause of tension – we can only imagine what would happen if, for instance, leaders in France or Germany would keep repeating that their respective countries are the leaders in Europe. The conflict ridden relations with Montenegro have been relaxed, but the tensions remain. The Belgrade press (and not only the tabloids) still write about Montenegrin mafia statesmen, president Tadic voiced his disapproval (in a statement to Podgorica’s daily Dan) that Serbs in Montenegro are officially considered a minority, and the new Serbian Patriarch has in his first public announcement lamented over the fact that Montenegrins do not want to recognize that they and the Serbs are the same people. The president of Montenegro, Filip Vujanovic, protested at once to this statement, there was however no response from the Serbian government. We could list many other sources of tension. Serbia and Croatia are suing each other at International Court of Justice in The Hague; their relations are continuously being burdened by incidents large and small, mostly regarding the question of Kosovo’s independence. This is also the reason why the president of Serbia, Boris Tadic, will not be attending Ivo Josipovic’s inauguration as the new president of Croatia - considering that the president of Kosovo is also invited. Bosnia is still a very sensitive issue due to the status of Republika Srpska. And at the end the most difficult question: recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Out of the 27 EU member states Kosovo’s independence has been recognized by 22 countries, but it still remains an open question whether these countries, despite strong support from Spain, Greece and Italy, and Carl Bildt, will continue to be considered good neighbors to Serbia.
On top of all this there is the question of NATO membership. Serbia’s Defense Doctrine is to be found in its Constitution and because of this it cannot be a member of the NATO alliance. Considering that all countries that were previously in the Warsaw Pact were first inducted into NATO and then the European Union the question arises: is it possible that Serbia will be an exception in to this rule? Two hundred Serbian intellectuals signed a petition these days demanding that the government put the question of NATO alliance membership to a referendum. They are convinced that people would vote against it. The government rejected this proposal saying that the question of NATO membership is not on the horizon. The media, which has the most influence over public opinion, is thoroughly against NATO membership. The Russian ambassador in Belgrade stated that his country would no longer support Serbia if it decided to join NATO, because joining NATO would mean Serbia had betrayed itself. The Belgrade daily Politika, which is partially owned by the German WAZ Media Group, had conducted a poll which showed that the great majority of influential public figures have a negative stance on Serbia’s NATO membership. Dusan Maihajlovic, who used to be the Minister of Internal Affairs in Djindjic’s government, made it clear that Serbia would have no benefits what so ever in joining NATO. In conclusion, it is no wonder that the masses have decided against NATO membership as well.
 Ratko Mladic’s arrest is still a mystery. During TV duels members of the Democratic Party often ask Progressive Party members whether, if they came to power, they would arrest Ratko Mladic. Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the Progressives, replied to this with a great dose of cynicism, asking them in return: if the Democrats have not been able to arrest him in the ten years they have been in power, and they have looked everywhere, why are they expecting salvation from him?
Kosovo, NATO, Ratko Mladic. All of these issues are casting a deep shadow over current optimism, and the citizens are more and more concerned by existential problems. This is why the national-rightist opposition is putting emphasis precisely on these problems. There are increasingly more protests and it is becoming evident that many employers (owners of now privatized previously state owned companies) are not paying the mandatory health and pension insurance for their employees. Foreign investment has also decreased – not only because of the world economic crises, but also due to domestic corruption. Even though the government had announced that they will mercilessly confront corruption all attempts thus far have failed, proving that Serbian oligarchs are more powerful than political parties and the government. They are much more powerful than any of the opposition parties or the opposition as a whole. The Belgrade daily Blic published a report that the chief of cabinet of the Minister of Internal Affairs (Ivica Dacic) is related to one of the arrested members of the drug mafia. The state secretary in the Ministry of Justice has stated that any and all question will be investigated and that no one will evade justice, even if that means the government would fall. Whether this is just another empty promise or will it be followed through by concrete measures, remains to be seen.
The most important moment in Serbia during the previous month most certainly was the selection of the new Patriarch. Considering that the Church has much influence on state politics it is not irrelevant who will be at the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church. The press reported that all major political parties had their candidates for the position. The deceased Patriarch Pavle was considered a moderate. However, this assessment is open to debate due to the fact that he signed a petition proclaiming Radovan Karadzic’s innocence. Therefore, if he was a moderate we can only speculate what the radicals are like. The Constitution of the Serbian Orthodox Church states that the Holy Ghost will pick a new Patriarch from the three bishops who had received the most votes from the Holy Assembly of Bishops. This basically means that the names of the three candidates are put into three separate envelopes and then through a lottery system, the so called “Apostolic Vote”, one name is pulled out. Devine Providence had decreed that eighty year old Bishop Irinej (Gavrilovic) will be Patriarch. Pro-Europeans breathed a sigh of relief to this news because Irinej is considered to be a moderate as well; he is also a very pious man and open to dialogue. In his first public appearance as Patriarch he clearly stated his support for EU integration. It was however conditioned by a request that the European Union not infringe on Serbian national identity. He did not forget to mention how it was Serbia’s job to fight for Kosovo, even if it that fight demanded certain sacrifices. He did not specify what type of sacrifice. In passing he also commented on the Muslim community, saying that where the Muslims are a minority peaceful coexistence is possible, but when they become a majority they become intolerant toward others. In light of the Srebrenica genocide that statement was scandalous. The Muslim community protested at once. A couple of days later the Patriarch saved his honor by apologizing and expressing regret that his words were misinterpreted.
The biggest surprise came when the Patriarch announced that it is possible that Pope Benedict XVI will visit Serbia in 2013 – during the 1700th anniversary of the Milan Edict by which Czar Constantine guaranteed religious freedoms in his empire. This has always been a sensitive issue for Serbia, especially since Pope Benedict XVI had stated his wish to visit Serbia several times. This visit had never come about because of the Serbian bishops continuous disapproval and because the Serbian state cannot welcome the head of the Catholic Church without the approval of The Assembly of Bishops of The Serbian Orthodox Church. Right after this announcement religious socialists loyal to Milosevic, who even now accuse the Socialist party of taking a turn to the right, voiced their strong disapproval and reminded that not even Patriarch Pavle allowed the Pope’s visit. Pavle’s predecessor also declined to allow the Pope to visit, saying that the Roman Pope may come (to what was then Yugoslavia) only to Jasenovac, but no further. During the Second World War Croatian Ustasha’s had killed a huge number of Serbs and Jews in the Jasenovac extermination camps. The weekly magazine Pecat, with great disapproval, reminds its readers that Pope John II supported the recognition of Croatia’s and Slovenia’s independence. Alarmed by what it sees as the pending apocalypse Pecat makes it known that the Pope’s visit is an introduction to Ratko Mladic’s arrest, abolishment of Republika Srpska and recognition of the Srebrenica genocide.
In a matter of days the issue of Srebrenica will have reached the Serbian Parliament. The Democratic Party intends to propose two declarations. One declaration would condemn the genocide in Srebrenica and distance us from this heinous crime, while the other would list and condemn all crimes committed against Serbs. The opposition does not consider it necessary to make a separate, Srebrenica related, declaration but thinks that it is enough to condemn all crimes in general: those committed by Serbs and those committed against Serbs. It is a fact that only one out of five Serbs supports a separate declaration on Srebrenica, suggesting that Serbian society is still very much weighed down by stark contradictions and that, in regards to European integration, it is high time that open discussions be commenced not only on economic interests but also on the responsibilities and obligations we have to the European Union.